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Bear with me, everyone. I'm 4 days out from an operation, knocked out on my feet and waiting for a phone call from WSIB as I write this- 'cause I Really want to go back to sleep right now. But I'll do my best.
-------
The proponents of 'man-made' global warming have, of late, been focusing upon 'extreme weather.' James Hansen of NASA, Bill McKibben of 350.org, Joe Romm, Fellow at American Progress, among many, many others, have all been focusing on each and every weather 'extreme' that comes along, in an attempt to tie these weather events to mankind's use of CO2-generating fossil fuels.
We hear about it in the 1.5% of the Earth's surface which saw a relatively minor heat wave and drought- the US, last summer- while the rest of the globe has been and is now, setting new cold and snow records. (They have left Alaska OUT of the equation when they speak of last summer's heat wave/drought- because that massive piece of US real-estate, has been much colder than usual, and has been going that way for the past decade. Wouldn't want to skew the average for the US by including Alaska; things would just be NORMAL, otherwise).
We are hearing about it now in Australia, with the wild-fires and their current (summer) heat wave, which only barely approaches or equals temperature records set as long ago as 1790. This, of course, after the Southern Hemisphere has seen some of its coldest temperatures since records began- not to mention the absolute highest sea-ice records in recorded history.
A slight digression: Always keep an eye out for the words 'recorded history.' If they are used, how far back does that record go? If they are not used, how far back is the journalist going- and what climate/weather events, are they neatly avoiding, in choosing that period of time?
There's nothing really new about the claim that the weather will get worse, if we keep on building quality of life and a better future for the whole world, through use of abundant, cheap energy sources. The phrase 'extreme weather,' as I say, is just a relatively recent choice of terms by the pro-AGW crowd.
However the claims made have been going on for decades. Hurricanes are one of the big ones, and the likes of Al Gore leapt upon that straw as quickly as they could.
Hurricanes are going to become more frequent. They are going to become more powerful. They are going to hit places they have never hit before. They are going to be happening later in the year / sooner in the year, as the world grows inexorably closer to boiling. Yes, 'boiling.' Not my word, but James Hansen's of NASA.
Sandy was the Premiere example of 'human-caused' natural disasters. A sign of things to come. Frankenstorm. The first Superstorm of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming.
And of Course, all the science proves it!
..... in a PIGS EYE.
Evidence that hurricanes would Not become anything like what is being claimed today, due to 'man-made' global warming, has been out there every bit as long as the claims that they would get worse, in the first place.
As I have mentioned before, I've been following climate change / 'man-made' global warming, since the end of the 1980s. I was a True Believer in the beginning, though I never heard anything about James Hansens' testimony before congress (1988), until years later.
I was a Believer, because I was not a Knower. So what I learned during the 90s was spotty. But when I began to learn, I began to become a Skeptic.
And one of the first things I learned, was from the writings of Dr. William Gray. Dr Gray has been at the fore-front of hurricane research for over 50 years, and as such, made it quite clear- this, all the way back to the early 90s- that the current period of warming would lead to a Lessening of hurricanes, both in strength and frequency. He believes that the current warming and the disasterous effects claimed for it, have been grossly exaggerated.**
Of course, he has been lampooned ever since that time. After all, what would a researcher, in the field all of his working life, and on top of every new fact gleaned about the atmosphere, possible know about the matter?
Even today, commentators regularly deride his knowledge on the subject. They've been sold on the coming catastrophe. There's a 'consensus,' don't you know? Tagged as a skeptic, or 'climate denier,' he is not supposed to be listened to. We 'deniers' are supposedly ignorant, don't want to do anything about pollution, happy to destroy the world for cash-
Sorry, but the incoming, peer-reviewed research, bears out Everything he has ever said on the matter.
First up, I give you a paper by ... oh, Hell, I'm just going to past the whole thing in:
A 370-Year History of Tropical Cyclones in the Lesser Antilles
Reference
Chenoweth, M. and Divine, D. 2012. Tropical cyclones in the Lesser Antilles: descriptive statistics and historical variability in cyclone energy, 1638-2009. Climatic Change 113: 583-598.
Background
The authors say that in an earlier paper (Chenoweth and Divine, 2008) they "presented a 318-year record of tropical cyclone activity in the Lesser Antilles and determined that there has been no statistically significant change in the frequency of tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) as well as tropical depressions over the entire length of the record." And they note that "the location of the Lesser Antilles partly within the 'Main Development Region' for Atlantic tropical cyclone formation makes this record our best source for historical variability of tropical cyclones in the tropical Atlantic in the past three centuries."
What was done
In their current paper, the two researchers examined the records employed in their earlier paper in somewhat more detail, determining "the maximum estimated wind speed for each tropical cyclone for each hurricane season to produce a seasonal value of the total cyclone energy of each storm along various transects that pass through the 61.5°W meridian." And somewhat analogous to accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), they calculated Lesser Antilles Cyclone Energy (LACE) along a fixed spatial domain (10-25°N, 61.5°W) at any time a tropical cyclone passed through it, after which they performed spectral and wavelet analysis on the LACE time series and tested it for statistical significance of trends.
What was learned
Chenoweth and Divine report that their record of tropical cyclone activity "reveals no trends in LACE in the best-sampled regions for the past 320 years," and that "even in the incompletely sampled region north of the Lesser Antilles there is no trend in either numbers or LACE," noting that these results are similar to those reported earlier by them (Chenoweth and Divine, 2008) on tropical cyclone counts. In addition, they indicate that LACE along the 61.5°W meridian is "highly correlated" with Atlantic-Basin-wide ACE.
---
What does that mean?
The Lesser Antilles intersect the “main development region” for Atlantic hurricane formation, making storm data there “our best source for historical variability of tropical cyclones in the tropical Atlantic in the past three centuries,” the researchers explain.
In 320 years, little has changed- this, while the Earth's temperature has been rising out of the Little Ice Age! This, while the Industrial Revolution has been going on!
No. Trend. No increase. Hurricanes have been doing what they have always been doing, CO2 be Damned.
More on this work, here [link]
But is there any trend the Other way?
Decreasing trend of tropical cyclone frequency in 228-year high-resolution AGCM simulations
1. Masato Sugi1,2,*,
2. Jun Yoshimura2
Article first published online: 10 OCT 2012
DOI: 10.1029/2012GL053360
©2012. American Geophysical Union.
We conducted 228-year long, three-member ensemble simulations using a high resolution (60 km grid size) global atmosphere model, MRI-AGCM3.2, with prescribed sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases and aerosols from 1872 to 2099. We found a clear decreasing trend of global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency throughout the 228 years of the simulation. We also found a significant multidecadal variation (MDV) in the long term variation of Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere TC count in addition to the decreasing trend. The decreasing trend and MDV in the long term variation of TC count correspond well to a similar decreasing trend and MDV of upward mass flux averaged over the TC genesis region and active TC season. It has been shown that the upward mass flux decreases primarily because the rate of increase of dry static stability, which is close to that of surface specific humidity, is much larger than the rate of increase of precipitation, which is nearly the same as that of atmospheric radiative cooling. Thus, it is suggested that the decreasing trend of TC count is mainly caused by the decreasing trend of upward mass flux associated with the increasing dry static stability.
[link]
You can also find the link to this paper, and a great many others which disagree with the unproven hypothesis of 'man-made' global warming, here [link]
Errrr, ok, just go with the title on that one: Decreasing trend of tropical cyclone frequency.
I thought CO2 was making things worse? We need to be shutting down our coal-fired power plants! The elderly and the poor need to freeze to death in the dark! WE'RE SAVING THE WORLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLD........!
But wait, there's more!
New paper finds global warming weakens tropical cyclones and steers them away from landfall
More benefits to global warming and inconvenient truths for climate alarmists:
A paper published today in the Journal of Climate finds that global warming weakens tropical Atlantic cyclones and also tends to steer them away from landfall, harmlessly into the open ocean. According to the authors, "As the climate warms, the models project a weakening of the subtropical easterlies [wind patterns that form tropical cyclones] as well as an eastward shift in genesis location. This results in a statistically significant decrease in straight-moving (westward) storm tracks of 5.5% and an increase in recurving (open ocean) tracks of 5.5%. These track changes decrease tropical cyclone counts over the Southern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean by 1-1.5 per decade and increase tropical cyclone counts over the central Atlantic by 1-1.5 per decade."
[link]
(also found on the Hockey Shtick)
Finally, I would like to present you Dr. Ryan Maue, PHD. His efforts on hurricanes may be found here [link]
Sorry to say, what he lays out is rather technical- it has taken me until the writing of this today, to understand what I was looking at, in his charts of Global Tropical Cyclone Activity. However if you are willing to put your mind to it, you will quickly see that his research shows that both the power and frequency of hurricanes, has been declining over the past decade.
-------
Sorry for the mess. To do a really good job of this, would take me several days. You have no idea how sleepy I am right now...
Oh, yes. one more thing: Seems there are signs that hurricanes go through a 60-70-year cycle. And the bottom of the cycle was around 1980.... which means, hurricanes Have become more frequent- but CO2 DIDN'T HAVE A DAMNED THING TO DO WITH IT.
The cycle just happened to be on the upswing, just in time for politicized 'science' to seize upon it. Now, it is dropping again.
There's more. There is Always more. But, this should do for starters.
Those of you who have open minds, keep an eye out on the IPCC AR5 report, coming out later this year. Betcha NONE of this work gets mentioned. Things' is gonna get worst, and its all Your fault.
-------
** I would Love to be able to link you to the article I first read by Dr Gray, which was likely over 20 years ago... but it was a newspaper editorial, if I recall rightly, and at this point I have not been able to find it. I shall, instead, start you off with this debate between Dr Gray and Dr Trenberth, who is one of those who advocates Catastrophic 'man-made' global warming [link]
------
Author's notes:
Like I say, sorry for the mess. But I think you will still find the information handy.
I've had this one in mind for over a year. Most of those I really want to write, have been in my head for at least that long.
I'll get more out to you, sooner or later. Still learning- like anyone with an open mind, Should be.
-------
The proponents of 'man-made' global warming have, of late, been focusing upon 'extreme weather.' James Hansen of NASA, Bill McKibben of 350.org, Joe Romm, Fellow at American Progress, among many, many others, have all been focusing on each and every weather 'extreme' that comes along, in an attempt to tie these weather events to mankind's use of CO2-generating fossil fuels.
We hear about it in the 1.5% of the Earth's surface which saw a relatively minor heat wave and drought- the US, last summer- while the rest of the globe has been and is now, setting new cold and snow records. (They have left Alaska OUT of the equation when they speak of last summer's heat wave/drought- because that massive piece of US real-estate, has been much colder than usual, and has been going that way for the past decade. Wouldn't want to skew the average for the US by including Alaska; things would just be NORMAL, otherwise).
We are hearing about it now in Australia, with the wild-fires and their current (summer) heat wave, which only barely approaches or equals temperature records set as long ago as 1790. This, of course, after the Southern Hemisphere has seen some of its coldest temperatures since records began- not to mention the absolute highest sea-ice records in recorded history.
A slight digression: Always keep an eye out for the words 'recorded history.' If they are used, how far back does that record go? If they are not used, how far back is the journalist going- and what climate/weather events, are they neatly avoiding, in choosing that period of time?
There's nothing really new about the claim that the weather will get worse, if we keep on building quality of life and a better future for the whole world, through use of abundant, cheap energy sources. The phrase 'extreme weather,' as I say, is just a relatively recent choice of terms by the pro-AGW crowd.
However the claims made have been going on for decades. Hurricanes are one of the big ones, and the likes of Al Gore leapt upon that straw as quickly as they could.
Hurricanes are going to become more frequent. They are going to become more powerful. They are going to hit places they have never hit before. They are going to be happening later in the year / sooner in the year, as the world grows inexorably closer to boiling. Yes, 'boiling.' Not my word, but James Hansen's of NASA.
Sandy was the Premiere example of 'human-caused' natural disasters. A sign of things to come. Frankenstorm. The first Superstorm of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming.
And of Course, all the science proves it!
..... in a PIGS EYE.
Evidence that hurricanes would Not become anything like what is being claimed today, due to 'man-made' global warming, has been out there every bit as long as the claims that they would get worse, in the first place.
As I have mentioned before, I've been following climate change / 'man-made' global warming, since the end of the 1980s. I was a True Believer in the beginning, though I never heard anything about James Hansens' testimony before congress (1988), until years later.
I was a Believer, because I was not a Knower. So what I learned during the 90s was spotty. But when I began to learn, I began to become a Skeptic.
And one of the first things I learned, was from the writings of Dr. William Gray. Dr Gray has been at the fore-front of hurricane research for over 50 years, and as such, made it quite clear- this, all the way back to the early 90s- that the current period of warming would lead to a Lessening of hurricanes, both in strength and frequency. He believes that the current warming and the disasterous effects claimed for it, have been grossly exaggerated.**
Of course, he has been lampooned ever since that time. After all, what would a researcher, in the field all of his working life, and on top of every new fact gleaned about the atmosphere, possible know about the matter?
Even today, commentators regularly deride his knowledge on the subject. They've been sold on the coming catastrophe. There's a 'consensus,' don't you know? Tagged as a skeptic, or 'climate denier,' he is not supposed to be listened to. We 'deniers' are supposedly ignorant, don't want to do anything about pollution, happy to destroy the world for cash-
Sorry, but the incoming, peer-reviewed research, bears out Everything he has ever said on the matter.
First up, I give you a paper by ... oh, Hell, I'm just going to past the whole thing in:
A 370-Year History of Tropical Cyclones in the Lesser Antilles
Reference
Chenoweth, M. and Divine, D. 2012. Tropical cyclones in the Lesser Antilles: descriptive statistics and historical variability in cyclone energy, 1638-2009. Climatic Change 113: 583-598.
Background
The authors say that in an earlier paper (Chenoweth and Divine, 2008) they "presented a 318-year record of tropical cyclone activity in the Lesser Antilles and determined that there has been no statistically significant change in the frequency of tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) as well as tropical depressions over the entire length of the record." And they note that "the location of the Lesser Antilles partly within the 'Main Development Region' for Atlantic tropical cyclone formation makes this record our best source for historical variability of tropical cyclones in the tropical Atlantic in the past three centuries."
What was done
In their current paper, the two researchers examined the records employed in their earlier paper in somewhat more detail, determining "the maximum estimated wind speed for each tropical cyclone for each hurricane season to produce a seasonal value of the total cyclone energy of each storm along various transects that pass through the 61.5°W meridian." And somewhat analogous to accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), they calculated Lesser Antilles Cyclone Energy (LACE) along a fixed spatial domain (10-25°N, 61.5°W) at any time a tropical cyclone passed through it, after which they performed spectral and wavelet analysis on the LACE time series and tested it for statistical significance of trends.
What was learned
Chenoweth and Divine report that their record of tropical cyclone activity "reveals no trends in LACE in the best-sampled regions for the past 320 years," and that "even in the incompletely sampled region north of the Lesser Antilles there is no trend in either numbers or LACE," noting that these results are similar to those reported earlier by them (Chenoweth and Divine, 2008) on tropical cyclone counts. In addition, they indicate that LACE along the 61.5°W meridian is "highly correlated" with Atlantic-Basin-wide ACE.
---
What does that mean?
The Lesser Antilles intersect the “main development region” for Atlantic hurricane formation, making storm data there “our best source for historical variability of tropical cyclones in the tropical Atlantic in the past three centuries,” the researchers explain.
In 320 years, little has changed- this, while the Earth's temperature has been rising out of the Little Ice Age! This, while the Industrial Revolution has been going on!
No. Trend. No increase. Hurricanes have been doing what they have always been doing, CO2 be Damned.
More on this work, here [link]
But is there any trend the Other way?
Decreasing trend of tropical cyclone frequency in 228-year high-resolution AGCM simulations
1. Masato Sugi1,2,*,
2. Jun Yoshimura2
Article first published online: 10 OCT 2012
DOI: 10.1029/2012GL053360
©2012. American Geophysical Union.
We conducted 228-year long, three-member ensemble simulations using a high resolution (60 km grid size) global atmosphere model, MRI-AGCM3.2, with prescribed sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases and aerosols from 1872 to 2099. We found a clear decreasing trend of global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency throughout the 228 years of the simulation. We also found a significant multidecadal variation (MDV) in the long term variation of Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere TC count in addition to the decreasing trend. The decreasing trend and MDV in the long term variation of TC count correspond well to a similar decreasing trend and MDV of upward mass flux averaged over the TC genesis region and active TC season. It has been shown that the upward mass flux decreases primarily because the rate of increase of dry static stability, which is close to that of surface specific humidity, is much larger than the rate of increase of precipitation, which is nearly the same as that of atmospheric radiative cooling. Thus, it is suggested that the decreasing trend of TC count is mainly caused by the decreasing trend of upward mass flux associated with the increasing dry static stability.
[link]
You can also find the link to this paper, and a great many others which disagree with the unproven hypothesis of 'man-made' global warming, here [link]
Errrr, ok, just go with the title on that one: Decreasing trend of tropical cyclone frequency.
I thought CO2 was making things worse? We need to be shutting down our coal-fired power plants! The elderly and the poor need to freeze to death in the dark! WE'RE SAVING THE WORLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLD........!
But wait, there's more!
New paper finds global warming weakens tropical cyclones and steers them away from landfall
More benefits to global warming and inconvenient truths for climate alarmists:
A paper published today in the Journal of Climate finds that global warming weakens tropical Atlantic cyclones and also tends to steer them away from landfall, harmlessly into the open ocean. According to the authors, "As the climate warms, the models project a weakening of the subtropical easterlies [wind patterns that form tropical cyclones] as well as an eastward shift in genesis location. This results in a statistically significant decrease in straight-moving (westward) storm tracks of 5.5% and an increase in recurving (open ocean) tracks of 5.5%. These track changes decrease tropical cyclone counts over the Southern Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean by 1-1.5 per decade and increase tropical cyclone counts over the central Atlantic by 1-1.5 per decade."
[link]
(also found on the Hockey Shtick)
Finally, I would like to present you Dr. Ryan Maue, PHD. His efforts on hurricanes may be found here [link]
Sorry to say, what he lays out is rather technical- it has taken me until the writing of this today, to understand what I was looking at, in his charts of Global Tropical Cyclone Activity. However if you are willing to put your mind to it, you will quickly see that his research shows that both the power and frequency of hurricanes, has been declining over the past decade.
-------
Sorry for the mess. To do a really good job of this, would take me several days. You have no idea how sleepy I am right now...
Oh, yes. one more thing: Seems there are signs that hurricanes go through a 60-70-year cycle. And the bottom of the cycle was around 1980.... which means, hurricanes Have become more frequent- but CO2 DIDN'T HAVE A DAMNED THING TO DO WITH IT.
The cycle just happened to be on the upswing, just in time for politicized 'science' to seize upon it. Now, it is dropping again.
There's more. There is Always more. But, this should do for starters.
Those of you who have open minds, keep an eye out on the IPCC AR5 report, coming out later this year. Betcha NONE of this work gets mentioned. Things' is gonna get worst, and its all Your fault.
-------
** I would Love to be able to link you to the article I first read by Dr Gray, which was likely over 20 years ago... but it was a newspaper editorial, if I recall rightly, and at this point I have not been able to find it. I shall, instead, start you off with this debate between Dr Gray and Dr Trenberth, who is one of those who advocates Catastrophic 'man-made' global warming [link]
------
Author's notes:
Like I say, sorry for the mess. But I think you will still find the information handy.
I've had this one in mind for over a year. Most of those I really want to write, have been in my head for at least that long.
I'll get more out to you, sooner or later. Still learning- like anyone with an open mind, Should be.
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© 2013 - 2024 Kajm
Comments4
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i finally got time to start reading your reports. Now I don't have my old records anymore. But back when I was with the Apple //e computer, there was a program that I could plot hurricanes, and show (in that wonderful 8bit graphics) where they went. I also was able to save various data like catagories. I can only tell you what I remember but I clearly remember no increase in strenght. If it's true that GW causes more powerful hurricanes, then why are we not seeing a perpundence of Cat 3 - 5s? Now there was a low period from the 60s to 1995, when the Atlantic entered the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, and such cycles typically last two to three decades. Hence I agree. We're in a warm period /in the ocean/ not in a planetary wide event.