Top10 Pause Explanations

Explanation #10 for the pause in global warming …”coincidence” has just completed the top 10 list, thanks Gavin! Party on! Excellent!

There is a new paper by Gavin Schmidt et al that comes in as #10 in the growing list of explanations for ‘the pause’. Now that we have a top ten list, let’s review:

New study claims hi caused “the pause” in global temperature – but AGW will return!

THE OCEANS ATE OUR GLOBAL WARMING! Trenberth and Fasullo, 2013. But the heat will come back when you least expect it.

Chinese coal caused the ‘pause’, published in the proceedings of the National Academy of Science. The study blamed Chinese coal use for the lack of global warming. Global warming proponents essentially claimed that coal use is saving us from dangerous global warming. Kaufmann et al 2011.

The Montreal Protocol caused the ‘pause‘, which reduced CFC’s – but warming will return soon. Estrada 2013.

Cowtan and Way’s (2013) underrepresented Arctic stations get adjustment to fiddle the numbers so that ‘pause’ never existed, but not so fast. It seems all isn’t quite as it seems. Dr. Judith Curry doesn’t think much of it either.

Volcanic aerosols, not pollutants, tamped down recent Earth warming, says CU study – Neely et al March 2013: A team led by the University of Colorado Boulder looking for clues about why Earth did not warm as much as scientists expected between 2000 and 2010 now thinks the culprits are hiding in plain sight — dozens of volcanoes spewing sulfur dioxide.

Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming. Solomon et al, 2010 Science Magazine.: Stratospheric water vapor concentrations decreased by about 10% after the year 2000. Here we show that this acted to slow the rate of increase in global surface temperature over 2000–2009 by about 25% compared to that which would have occurred due only to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.’

(but.... BUT!..... increased CO2 was supposed to cause MORE WATER VAPOUR TO ENTER THE ATMOSPHERE!)

Slower Pacific Trade winds caused the pause England Et al 2014. A paper published today in Nature Climate Change adds the eighth excuse for the ‘pause’ in global warming: strengthened Pacific trade winds, which according to the authors, were “not captured [simulated] by climate models.” On the basis of those same highly-flawed climate models, the authors predict rapid global warming will resume in a decade or so when those trade winds abate. But in 2006, we were told the opposite.

(notice how the exact same person made the exact Opposite claim in 2006 - when they were still shrieking that 'the Pause' was not happening)

Stadium Waves. Wyatt and Curry 2013. ‘Stadium waves’ could explain lull in global warming. Not un-plausible.

(not sure why this one is included- Climate scientist Judith Curry, considered a Skeptic because she doesn't subscribe to 'WE'RE ALL GONNA DIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!,' posits that the last 40 years of warming are mostly natural)

“Coincidence, conspired to dampen warming trends” Schmidt et al 2014. NASA’s Gavin Schmidt et al says: ‘Here we argue that a combination of factors, by coincidence, conspired to dampen warming trends in the real world after about 1992. CMIP5 model simulations were based on historical estimates of external influences on the climate only to 2000 or 2005, and used scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, or RCPs) thereafter.’

For the full article and an explanation of the last item- IT WAS TOTAL COINCIDENCE, MANN! - please read here wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/28…

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Climate scientist and 'man-made' global warming True Believer Ben Santer, said several years ago that 'The Pause' would have to last 17 years, in order to falsify 'man-made' global warming.

It has been 17 years, 7 months.

Santer has since kicked the can down the road, claiming it would need to be 20 years

If one looks at the information (which I shall cover in another article), it has actually been 20 years.

Suck on that, True Believers.

That took longer than I wanted. I have GOT to be going.